A fellow walks into a bakery. It’s a couple hours before closing time and he knows the store won’t be making any more donuts. He sees doughnuts on the shelf priced at $5 a dozen. There are eight dozen left. He tells the clerk, “I’ll give you $3 a dozen for all your doughnuts.’’ What should the baker do? 1) He can think, ‘’I’m getting five dollars a dozen. They are good doughnuts. I don’t want to disappoint any customers who come in late. So I should not sell them off cheap.’’ 2) Or, “I might not get another customer in the store tonight. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I better sell them all now, even if that means not getting full price.’’ 3) “It isn’t likely a whole bunch of customers will come in wanting those doughnuts, but just in case, I better not drop my price.’’ 4) “It’s been a lousy day. I need some money to put in the bank. I better grab it while the grabbing is good.’’ 5) Or, “If word gets around I’m cheap at the last minute, everybody will be coming in late demanding deals.’’ 6) Perhaps, “If word gets around that people who come in late won’t get any doughnuts, they will come in earlier.’’ Ah, decisions, decisions, decisions. But, are they hard decisions? Not really. If it happens once in a blue moon, the baker can decide one way or the other if he wants to sell. He doesn’t have to worry about any of the long term problems a sale, or no sale, might create. But, if it happens day after day, and if he always needs the money, he should start thinking something funny is going on. Somehow, so to speak, some kind of cat is already out of the bag. These days, I think there is something very similar going on with oilsands pricing deals. Basically, you could build an oilsands plant any day of the week. Call it a special “oilsands’’ house. In our way of doing things in Alberta, all the money you would usually pay in taxes on the house instead go to actually paying for the house. You don’t pay any taxes until the house cost is completely paid off. Which of course means, you get a house for free! It’s the same with an oilsands plant. No royalties to Albertans until the plant is paid for. So, like the baker, do we have a problem? If it was only one plant, well, wait and see. Now that plant builders are lining up like doughnut - starved customers, it’s easy to see it’s time for a change. Yes, indeed.

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